Lake County's Market Action Index is 31 this week versus 32 last month. The MAI is essentially a barometer of the temperature in which the housing market is performing. Above 30? You're in seller's market territory. Below 30? If sellers are competing, buyers aren’t in charge. We’re currently in something called a “slight seller’s advantage”. Not the wild west of 2021, but sellers do have some leverage.
The median sale price in Lake County is currently $414,900. New listings arrived at a median of $427,450. That tells you something interesting. Sellers are somehow pushing that upper limit a little bit when they first list You’re probably looking at $214 per square foot across the board.
The inventory is holding at 2,454 homes. That number has not changed much. Or, to put it another way, there’s already equilibrium in the fact homes are selling at the same rate as new listings being added.
Now, this is where all of it gets fascinating. Nearly half of homes have cut their asking price. It’s not panic selling on the part of the sellers. It’s a return to earth after years of unprecedented appreciation. A mere 4% of those have raised their price, another 4% relisted. Though those numbers don’t mean sellers are desperate, but they do give you something to bargain with if buying.
Homes in Lake County are spending an average of 120 days on the market. The median? 84 days. The difference in transit times is significant. Nearly two-thirds of homes remain on the market for less than three months. Yet a tail of properties takes many months and even years to sell. This adds further value to the median.
And if you’re selling, getting your price right has suddenly become all the more important. If you’re a buyer, well — you have time to think, to do your due diligence and schedule that second showing without worrying that an overnight cash offer will sweep in and snatch it away.
Lake County has four broad market segments and knowing where you fit in makes a world of difference.
Upper Tier ($746,275 median): At this higher price point, a purchase here will get you larger houses that are around 3,000 square feet in size and usually have four bedrooms and three baths on a quarter to half-acre lot. And these are relatively newer properties, with an average age of just 14 years. This segment had 41 new listings, and absorbed 21 sales. Homes here are stagnating for an average of 98 days.
Upper-Middle ($466,764 median): Here’s where you run into homes great for families but not yet luxury. Approximately 2,160 square feet; four bedrooms; three baths on eight- to ten-thousand-square-foot lots Most properties are an average of 11 years old. Older homes make more sense because you’re not as likely to be paying a premium for everything working (not to mention the new-home shipping and other charges). In this class, we observed 51 homes added to the inventory and 30 sales. The extra homes sold in an average of 84 days.
Lower-Middle ($374,132 median): This seems to be the sweet spot for many buyers. About 1,840 square feet, three bedrooms and two baths Most homes are about 19 years old. You get established neighborhoods. This particular segment is interesting. New listings, however, were limited to just 27, with 34 sales. So, product turned faster than it could be replaced. Homes sat for 91 days.
Entry Level ($290,000 median): Your least expensive category. Around 1,466 square feet with three bedrooms and two bathrooms. Purchasing these properties is such a thrifty way to acquire age. What’s interesting is that this tier has also witnessed 47 new listings and 44 sales — making it the tightest of all categories. The least expensive homes, on the other hand, are selling fastest: an average of just 77 days on market.
Buying a home will give you more stability than you’ve had in a long time. A 49 percent price reduction to me means the sellers are wanting to make a deal and be realistic. You have time to decide — that median, 84 days, indicates a more leisurely pace than houses flying off the market. When the stock is steady, you don’t have to follow diminishing number of choices.
Entry-level is your tightest market. Sub 300k shopping means less time to make a decision and more people battling. The upper tiers? You’ve got more flexible, and probably have more bargaining power.
The seller has the advantage (the MAI is on 31), but it’s just a very slight difference. You can no longer aggressively price and hope. A reduction rate of 49%! That’s what happens when someone tries to list too high. Price it right from day one. Know your segment: if you are in that lower middle tier, where sales exceed new listings, you’re better off than the higher tiers. The top tiers are akin to the prototypical and upper-middle tiers. They are outpacing the pace of inventory moving.
Lake County is normalizing. For years now, it has been a frenzy — bidding wars, on-the-spot offers and prices climbing 20 percent year over year. Now, though, the action is calming down into a more healthful form of itself. The MAI 32 to 31 decline is a course correction. The earned inventory of 2,454 homes is evidence that we’re in a groove.
It’s still a seller’s market, just not by as much. Buyers have regained some power. Negotiations are real again. Inspections matter. Appraisals matter. So much that is basic to real estate was utterly ignored in the pandemic. They're back.
And honestly? That’s good for all of us.
So whether you're looking at that model home for $746,000 on the half-acre lot, or that starter dwelling in a more-established neighborhood listed for $290,000...You are getting opportunities now from Lake County’s market ahead of time. And the MAI, at 31, reflects that it’s no free for all buyer’s market. But it is not the seller frenzy of 2021, either.
You've got inventory. You've got time. You've got room to negotiate. And there is the market, finally becoming rational again.
That's not a bad place to be.
